The Kings as a team have definitely been worse than expected, but if there is one group that has been better than the rest, it's the bigs. With DeMarcus Cousins, J.J. Hickson, Jason Thompson, and Chuck Hayes, the Kings have a deep big man rotation that still has potential to get better.
The biggest reason for optimism from these guys has been on the defensive end. All four bigs are currently better than average on that end, with one guy in particular (DeMarcus Cousins) standing out. All four Kings bigs are solid rebounders, and only one (Hickson) is really struggling offensively.
Speaking of Hickson, the Kings will have a decision to make this summer about which big to keep between Hickson and Thompson. It is slightly possible that the team could choose to keep both, especially considering that both players are Restricted Free Agents, but I believe only one will be retained. Currently, Hickson has been given more of a chance to succeed, but Thompson has been far more efficient and productive.
Chuck Hayes was the Kings marquee free agent signing this offseason, but he only played 8 games before dislocating his shoulder against Milwaukee, and will be out a further three weeks.
I will be using several sources for my analysis. First, I'll be using the Advanced Statistics found on Basketball-Reference (PER, TS%, AST%, etc.). I will also be using Synergy Sports Technology's data to give a more in-depth look at how our players perform each possession, both offensively and defensively. Synergy Sports uses PPP (Points Per Possession) to track individual players. They track individual play types on both ends of the court and I will be provding samples of each players major play types. Finally, I'll be using HoopData's shot location statistics to see how our players shoot from certain locations.
The following statistics were compiled as of January 18th, 2012. They do not include the Indiana Pacers game. If you would like some explanations of the following statistics, Basketball-Reference has explanations here.
PER: 19.7
TS%: .506
ORB%: 16.2
DRB%: 23.4
AST%: 4.0
STL%: 2.1
BLK%: 4.6
TOV%: 17.9
USG%: 27.2
Overall Offensive PPP: 0.83
Shot Locations
Overall Defensive PPP: 0.68
Analysis:
DeMarcus is slowly but surely making strides towards becoming one of the best big men in the NBA, but he still has his faults. Namely, he's very inefficient offensively. He uses a ton of possessions, turns it over a lot, and lacks a distinct post-game. There are a few reasons for why his post-game suffers. One, the Kings do a terrible job of getting the ball into the post. Two, DeMarcus does a terrible job of fighting for position, and often receives the ball with his back to the basket from 16 feet out or farther. Three, DeMarcus relies a lot on his strength and quickness to overpower or get by opponents, and while that worked in college, it doesn't work in the bigger, stronger, quicker NBA. DeMarcus needs to continue to increase his conditioning while also getting stronger. As Tom mentioned earlier this year, DeMarcus missed a bunch of gimme buckets at the rim, mostly off of offensive rebounds (where he's one of the best in the league). That hurts his percentages quite a bit, and those should even out as the season progresses, although DeMarcus doesn't help matters by being impatient and just throwing the ball up in the general vicinity of the hoop. Away from the rim, DeMarcus is currently shooting a blistering 47% from the 16-23 foot range, a David West or Kevin Garnett like performance. It remains to be seen if that can be sustained. I have my doubts, but DeMarcus is a better shooter than most think. DeMarcus also does a great job of getting to the line, and more importantly converting them, currently shooting almost 78%.
One place where DeMarcus has really dropped off from last year is in his passing. Last year he had almost a 15% Assist rate, among the best for big men, and this year he's in black hole territory. He's being used a bit differently, but we're not seeing nearly as many of those pretty passes, and it worries me a bit that the team isn't taking advantage of those skills from the high post.
Defensively is where DeMarcus has really shined so far this year. Of starting centers, only Bynum, DeAndre Jordan, Bargnani(!) and Chandler have allowed fewer Points Per Possession. DeMarcus' block rate has more than doubled, and he steals the ball as often as a guard. He does a great job of closing out on spot-up shooters, where that 7'6 wingspan really helps. There isn't a reliable source for statistics on Charges Drawn, but he has to be among the league leaders in that category as well. The biggest problem with DeMarcus on defense is foul trouble, as he's averaging 6.2 fouls per 36 minutes, a higher rate than even last year. As such he can't get consistent minutes.
PER: 11.0
TS%: .429
ORB%: 11.1
DRB%: 21.0
AST%: 5.5
STL%: 1.0
BLK%: 1.5
TOV%: 17.5
USG%: 17.3
Overall Offensive PPP: 0.72
Shot Locations
Overall Defensive PPP: 0.72
Analysis:
J.J. Hickson has no doubt been disappointing, particularly offensively. He's taking way fewer shots near the rim than he did in Cleveland, and is converting the ones he is taking at a much lower rate as well. He's also shooting far too many mid-long range jumpers despite being a very poor shooter from those areas, both currently and for his career. He's only 2 of 15 on the season on his spot-up jumpers. J.J.'s turnover rate has also grown to a career high. About the only thing J.J. is doing well offensively is hitting the offensive boards.
Defensively, I was a bit surprised by these findings. According to Synergy, J.J. is playing good defense at the Power Forward, only allowing 32% FG% against, and just 0.72 PPP. Almost half of his defensive possessions have been closing out on Spot-up shooters, and his quickness and length helps to bother those shots. I still have my doubts on J.J. defensively despite these findings, as I find he lacks fundamentals, but these statistics are a bit encouraging.
PER: 16.5
TS%: .548
ORB%: 8.6
DRB%: 14.9
AST%: 9.4
STL%: 1.2
BLK%: 0.9
TOV%: 8.7
USG%: 16.2
Overall Offensive PPP: 0.97
Shot Locations
Overall Defensive PPP: 0.77
Analysis:
Jason has benefited this season from a more defined role as a bench big, and probably deserves more playing time than he has gotten. He's been by far the most efficient player on the Kings, is passing the ball well, rarely turning it over, and hitting the offensive glass. About the only area where JT is struggling in offensively is from the line, where he is only shooting 37%, well below his career average of 67%.
Defensively, JT has been the best post defender the Kings have, allowing only 29.4% on post-up opportunities, but doing worse against Spot-Up shooters and guarding against the Pick and Roll. He's also below his career average for defensive rebound rate by a fair amount, but he also hasn't gotten consistent minutes. JT is also doing much better at not fouling, averaging a career low 3.5 fouls per 36 minutes. Again, that might be noise due to the small sample, but I believe that this is genuine improvement.
PER: 11.9
TS%: .466
ORB%: 10.9
DRB%: 22.6
AST%: 9.9
STL%: 1.0
BLK%: 1.1
TOV%: 14.2
USG%: 12.0
Overall Offensive PPP: 0.83
Shot Locations
Overall Defensive PPP: 0.79
Analysis:
We've only seen about 7 and a half games from Chuck since he dislocated his shoulder, so these stats are even more of a small sample than for the other guys. Still, they tend to fall in line with his career stats. For one, he rarely uses up any possessions, having the lowest Usage rate of any King in the rotation since Jon Brockman. He's currently our best passing big man, and he's a good rebounder on both ends of the court. Offensively, almost all of his shots come from cutting to the basket or tip-in attempts, and he rarely does anything out of the flow of the offense.
Defensively, he's been solid and in-line with what the statistics say he performed in Houston. His height is less of a problem than it would be for other positions, because his strength, wingspan, quick feet, and low center of gravity make it very hard to get by him or back him down in the post.
Chuck is the ultimate team player, and the Kings are hurting for his leadership and unselfishness on the court.
5 recs | 59 comments
I really hope we can find a way to keep JT around longer
I just don’t see a reason to go after JJ. The rumors from the FO are scaring me that they are going to screw this up as well
prowseinthehouse - January 19, 2012
its weird when Jason Thompson is the tipping point
but I see your point
TheFifthMookie - January 19, 2012
In my mind, it almost seems like the reason Jason didn't get many minutes
despite his solid play, was that the team doesn’t want to pay him.
I still don’t discount that, but to me it seems foolish, because young, solid back-up PFs and Cs are valuable trade assets. The Kings could probably trade Thompson, (and Hickson for that matter) to an older, contending team for a late first-rounder or early second, and maybe a 1 year rental on a good vet.
Ice_9ine - January 19, 2012
or maybe that they know he's solid
but want to know more about what Hickson might bring
LPKingsFan - January 19, 2012
I think they should sign both, and trade Hickson.
Don’t just let Hickson walk away. A team too close to the cap, for instance, can’t just sign him outright.
Shizzo - January 19, 2012
was watching espn last night
and Shaq said if Cousins can continue to play his well he thinks kings will go over .500. The one guy i expect not much love for the kings from is the one giving it beside the rest of them that just hate on the kings (beside webber of course) Nice to see. lets hope dmc can continue to dominate and help bring the W’s
yaboyrafa - January 19, 2012
I don't think I agree with him
but appreciate the sentiment none the less
prowseinthehouse - January 19, 2012
Welll...if by "this way" he meant
12 offensive rebounds and 19 total per game, then we may have a shot
ElRonToro - January 19, 2012
It's going to take the rest of the team to pick up their games a helluva lot to get to .500
But DMC is definitely helping out, thats for sure
prowseinthehouse - January 19, 2012
Would agree if he meant .500 with Cousins playing like this, as opposed to getting total record over .500
SPTSJUNKIE - January 19, 2012
If DMC goes 32 min and 16 and 12.5 the rest of the year
someone else will still have to join the party at near all start level before we sniff 500.
ElRonToro - January 19, 2012
True. But consistent Howard-lite numbers from Cousins goes a long way
We’ve played really well in his monster games (win or lose) and struggled mightily when he disappeared for whatever reason (Rockets & Mavs come to mind).
SPTSJUNKIE - January 19, 2012
Those numbers will really make a difference if he becomes more efficient
20 pts a night looks really good, but at how inefficient he’s been it’s not enough to bring us out of the murk
prowseinthehouse - January 19, 2012
Agree
SPTSJUNKIE - January 19, 2012
Nice to see Cousins get the recognition from Shaq.
It takes one big to appreciate another one.
Slam_Dunk - January 19, 2012
Don't let the Dee-Bo resemblence fool you
Shaq has a deceptively high BBall IQ
Wonderchild - January 19, 2012
I learned not to underestimate Shaq when he took on football.
Slam_Dunk - January 19, 2012
Kings just about 1.6 wins behind 50% team
I have made a rough estimate of how many games a 50% win team would have won at this point on the King’s schedule. The Kings are about 1.6 games behind after he Indiana win. Despite several horrible losses two unexpected wins would put the Kings in line to win 50 percent this year.
If Smart’s new strategy works a 50% season is easily within reach. Like the improvements Cousins, Thompson and Thomas are making. The last three games have not been kind to Tyreke in some ways.He’s shooting just 22 percent, but distributing the ball better. He is averaging 5.3 assists which I suspect is the best rate for this team which is shooting so poorly. When the team shoots better I expect his assist rate to approach 6.
I do not know why Tyreke is shooting so poorly the last three games, but hopefully between Tyreke and Smart a change can be made to get Tyreke’s shooting percentage back up to the high rate it was before the recent slump.
Carlji - January 19, 2012
I don't understand the 1.6 thing you're talking about.
caseycheesecake - January 19, 2012
Sounds like he is taking into account some advanced stats
Like strength of schedule and home/away ratio, but I would like to know how you got the 1.6 as well.
Wonderchild - January 19, 2012
yeah he needs establish himself into an allstar
which i think he is capable of doing.
not necessarily making the all star team this year because its probably too latebut nevertheless he can become an allstar playeryaboyrafa - January 19, 2012
When Shaq used to play here in Sac he'd often be out and about.
Him and Charles Barkeley are actually the only two non Kings players I have seen out and about in town when they were here to play games (well, the only two I recognized).
wallywagon11 - January 19, 2012
I don't see this...
The Kings pass to Cousins plenty. And Cousins does a good job making himself available to catch the entry pass.
Coach Smart has stressed that DeMarcus Cousins does not have a go-to move in the post. This is true, right? The game plan until he develops a consistent move with his back to basket, whether thats turnaround jumper or half-hook, is to play him in the mid post. The mid post is a step or two off the low block.
The mid post gives DeMarcus space to do his spin move baseline. If he caught the ball in the low post and did his spin move he would end up in awkward position under the basket. The mid post also creates better passing angles than the low post.
DeMarcus has had his best success when he has option to catch and face too, and use size and quick first step to get into the lane. This is why the mid post is where he typically sets up, it gives him best chance to succeed. The low post is always an option especially if he gets matched against smaller defender and can pin him low early in the shot clock, but the plays are designed for DeMarcus to catch the pass off the low block by 1-2 steps.
You can debate whether or not DeMarcuc belongs in the mid post (I do, until he develops the half-hook or turnaround), but the Kings are doing a good job getting the ball to DeMarcus where the strategy dictates.
bench_blob - January 19, 2012
100% agreed
otis29 - January 19, 2012
I should have clarified a bit on the terrible job of getting the ball into the post
I just think our post-entry passes are terrible. We make a lot of them, but we often hesitate a lot and it gives the defense more time to set and react to the pass.
Aykis16 - January 19, 2012
I agree
Cisco is the only one who seems to be ok at it
ElRonToro - January 19, 2012
Yep. That's why the team should go get Andre Miller.
I found this article very interesting.
Ice_9ine - January 19, 2012
Don't mind a teacher on the team
Problem is Miller doesn’t really fit our personnel & we’d have to give assets to Denver to get him.
I said before the season though, I thought we should sign a veteran PG as a backup. And I think this is one of the benefits. Our team lacks much veteran mentoring. Cisco & Hayes are the only two who can provide any. Well, Salmons could, but…. you know.
SPTSJUNKIE - January 19, 2012
another problem
let’s not forget what happened with the Clippers. Yes I know it’s been awhile now but just sayin.
wallywagon11 - January 19, 2012
So you're saying we can get Mo Williams instead.
caseycheesecake - January 19, 2012
Beno was our best at it.
And he was also a heavy recipient of passes from the high post as he cut, both with Spencer Hawes and DeMarcus.
Aykis16 - January 19, 2012
He was.
I miss Beno’s influence on the court, as he was such a fundamentally sound player. Knowing Salmons is his replacement just makes it worse.
MichaelMack - January 19, 2012
I won't mention that we also traded DOWN in the draft as well
Oh wait…
Aykis16 - January 19, 2012
...
otis29 - January 19, 2012
Why would you be like that
some things are meant to be discussed behind closed doors.
MichaelMack - January 19, 2012
I would add we rarely let Cousins reposition.
With other dominant bigs, if they catch the ball and don’t feel they have good positioning they will kick it back out, re-position and receive another pass. Our bigs either force up a shot or kick it out and never see the ball again. Some may argue it’s our guards/wings being “selfish,” but it’s just as much coaching. Seems like a pretty standard practice for players like Shaq, Howard, etc.
On another note, 100% agree about Cousins passing. He is such a promising passer for a big man, I would love to see more cuts and movement off the ball to take advantage of it.
SPTSJUNKIE - January 19, 2012
off the ball movement is getting better. Looked great at times last night.
Hopefully will get more consistent as time goes by.
Wonderchild - January 19, 2012
Agree. Have noticed it slowly creerping in for stretches. Think the second practice helped.
Hoping it leads to more offensive efficiency over time. Certainly helping with Evans assist totals.
SPTSJUNKIE - January 19, 2012
From what I've seen
And I haven’t seen every second of every game DMC has played, but he rarely seems to receive the ball on the actual block, so for me it’s tough to comment on what he does or doesn’t do there. I will agree that he needs to refine his low post game, but the jury is still out for me on what he can actually do on the block. His off the block post game is inefficient now, so I’d like to put him on the actual block and see what he can do. I would’ve liked to have seen more of the offense go through him when he had Amundson or Hansbrough on him as I don’t think they could match up with him physically. Didn’t seem like we really looked for him much in those situations as we were content to let our perimeter player brick away.
As for his passing, he seems a willing and able passer, but a lot of the problem with DMC’s passing is the same as the rest of our offense- 4 guys standing around watching the guy with the ball. I think if you had set plays with cutters and weak side activity, DMC would find those guys, but it’s hard to hit a cutter or find an open man when nobody is moving.
outrider - January 19, 2012
Completely off topic but like sharing
Here’s a nice 20 minute video of Michael Jordan basically raining hell down on his opponents his first 9 years in the league (up until first retirement).
Still remember doing a week up at Sly Park with no TV or radio and seeing on a chalkboard in the mess hall one day “Michael Jordan retired” and every middle school boy was absolutely stunned.
wallywagon11 - January 19, 2012
Amazing hang time.
My 10-year-old son idolized him.
Slam_Dunk - January 19, 2012
I actually think if Hayes was healthy
We’d have 2 maybe 3 more wins and be right around .500.
Lotusprime - January 19, 2012 via mobile
Hard to fathom
Most of the games we’ve lost without him have been blowouts. Maybe Orlando at home? That’s about it, though.
otis29 - January 19, 2012
Plus
The frontcourt is the one group that’s been playing fairly well. So Hayes would have to have played at a pretty high level to change those outcomes.
otis29 - January 19, 2012
I think Orlando, Houston, and Minnesota are all games that we should have won.
New York is another game we should have won, and we had everyone healthy in that game.
Aykis16 - January 19, 2012
Those were the three I was thinking as well
I think the impact of having a second coach on the floor can’t be understated. Hayes isn’t going to bring production but he does bring intangibles.
Lotusprime - January 19, 2012 via mobile
Think we have to start noting timing of games as BS or ASS
The New York game was BS (Before Smart) and the other games were ASS (After Smart Started.).
There’s no point in discussing the BS games, because we all know PW was the King of BS. Is there any doubt that PW’s coaching was a BS problem?
Minnesota was the main ASS game we should have won. Maybe against the Rockets, but they are nearly .500 themselves and a good, veteran home team.
But seeing how we’ve played like ASS, I think there’s decent reason to hope for improvement.
SPTSJUNKIE - January 19, 2012
You've been saving that one haven't you?
I would rec it from my phone if I could.
Lotusprime - January 19, 2012 via mobile
Sadly, no, this is just how my whimsical brain works.
SPTSJUNKIE - January 19, 2012
so you're saying it's time to resurrect the nice ASS movement?
I wouldn’t Natt that.
Bluejohn - January 19, 2012
I don't know
I like Hayes but don’t see anything from him that really makes us all that much better
prowseinthehouse - January 19, 2012
Let's see when he comes back
He’s a team player, not a great individual player. In PW’s stagnant offense that highlighted individual play, Hayes really didn’t have an opportunity to look his best. If Smart continues to instill a more motion, team based offense, I think Hayes’ skills will stand out more.
SPTSJUNKIE - January 19, 2012
It depends if Smart wants to run the ball thru Hayes in the High Post
I don’t like DMC doing it because it takes him away from the offensive glass. The problem with Hayes and JJ is that they don’t pull their man away from the paint. Neither is a serious threat to take and make an outside shot. That’s why I think offensively JT and Donte are better choices at the 4.
Chuck defensively helps in that he’s the defensive quarterback, and take pressure away from Cuz to defend the rim. I myself have never liked the slowest guy on the floor in the best position to get back to stop the fast break. And, especially if he isn’t a threat to shot the long ball. I didn’t work for us with Hawes, and I like Hayes in that role even less.
HighTops - January 19, 2012
I meant more Hayes is the type of player who does the little things that help the O
Nasty picks (on and off ball), passing, offensive rebounds
When we are running 1 on 1 basketball or doing a Cuz/Evans screen and roll with no off ball movement, those skills get largely nullified.
If Smart runs an offense with more ball and off ball movement, cutting and screening – Hayes team based skill set will be more fully utilized like it was with the Rockets.
I agree though. Any offense that relies on giving the ball to Hayes away from the hoop is already facing an uphill battle.
SPTSJUNKIE - January 19, 2012
I see and agree with your point
HighTops - January 19, 2012
totally agree.
our offense is struggling even more without him despite he fact he doesn’t really score himself. He sets great screens which helps out alot. Jimmers game for example has really struggled more without him, he was the only one who ever set screens for anyone.
sacman - January 19, 2012
i think are bigs are pretty solid.
With the exception they set terrible screens (except for hayes of course). We have quality bigs. Its a no brainer we need to keep 3 out of our 4. I think its got to be JT. This is the most poised and patient he’s been thus far in his career. He started to do this about the last quarter of last season and its carried through. I think our bigs are the least of our problems. Biggest problem is point guard obviously, and the small forward. I do think if garcia plays more it will help us. He does spred the floor, doesn’t need the ball, and works hard on D.
sacman - January 19, 2012
JT has been a lot better with his screens, and i think its Hayes showing him more things..Honestly i havent seen this much improvement in him in years, and I think Hayes is a better teacher then most of our other bigs in Sac..
Widowwolf - January 20, 2012
JT should get a contract from the Kings, but they may let him go.
The FO overvalues or undervalues their own players in weird ways. The whole Salmons story was oddly like dumping a boyfriend then wanting him back after he started dating someone else.
polotown - January 20, 2012
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