How improbable was a Sacramento Kings win on the road against the San Antonio Spurs?
Entering the game, the Spurs were 9-0 at home with an average points margin of +13.3. The Spurs had been needing late heroics of late, with two overtime wins at the AT&T within the past week. But that margin is massive and daunting.
The Kings came in 1-7 on the road with an average points margin of -19 against a mixed but generally tough schedule. If the Kings held to their normal road performance and the Spurs held to their normal home performance, we would expect the Kings to ... lose by 32. Seems about right based on that last road trip, no?
Instead, the Kings won by a bucket 88-86, relying on solid defense and that sizzling first quarter of offense to pull out the victory. The Kings' offense is still very much a work in progress, as the second and fourth quarters were bad on that end and the stellar assist rate from the first fell apart almost instantly in the second. (The Kings finished with 16 assists on 36 makes, about par for the course for Sacramento.)
But on the road? A victory like that is incredibly commendable for this team. For the Kings, no victory should be taken for granted, and to reverse fortunes against a good team away from Sacramento is a real highlight.
1 recs | 67 comments
How did you figure their expected loss to be 32?
I am not talking about adding their average win margin to our average win loss. Perhaps that is the way to calculate it. Just doesn’t seem right.
Slam_Dunk - January 21, 2012
You could average the averages
for a 16-point loss, but that wouldn’t tell the whole story either. Maybe something in-between. I bid 24.
Biscuit - January 21, 2012
Spurs are ...
… 13 points better than break-even at home. Kings were 19 points worse than break-even on the road. Maybe I’m wrong, but that seems right.
Tom Ziller - January 21, 2012
... that seems about right
Unless you figure that in a Spurs win, Pop rests his starters. Besides, isn’t averaging a more advanced stat than adding? Where are the stat hounds?
Midwest Chuck - January 21, 2012
I don't know the answer...
but I would think that a prediction would have to take into account a statistical regression toward the mean in a larger sample size. The Kings had some blowouts, which skewed their numbers.
Slam_Dunk - January 21, 2012
We could all factorial...
But then you would have to taking into account how good the team was (winning record), the average age of the starters on the other team (compressed season favors young legs), and if they were on a back to back or had a day off.
I am sure you could add more variables and develop a nice regression model. It could even be tested against all the teams. If it works start betting…
CowbellKings - January 21, 2012
Yes, we could.
but then again, it might not have the same journalistic impact of adding a 13.3 point win margin to a 19 point win loss to predict a 32-point road loss.
That could even be a dissertation thesis for a doctoral candidate with a passion for basketball entitled, “Predicting point differentials between NBA teams’ road and home game wins and losses using a multi-variate regression analysis.”
Slam_Dunk - January 21, 2012
Not quite right
The Spurs win by an average of 13 points at home, and the Kings lose by an average of 19 points on the road. You would expect the final margin to be within those two numbers, not a combination of the two. In other words, you would expect the Kings to lose by 16 points (between 13-19).
BrianNW - January 21, 2012
Correct.
caseycheesecake - January 21, 2012
Probably correct
But would you really have been surprised by a blowout here?
Blue Dog - January 21, 2012 via mobile
Exactly right
Fuck the stats, just watching the Kings recently is why I thought they’d be blown out by 30+. Extremely happy it didn’t roll that way.
Crazy King Man from OZ - January 21, 2012 via Android app
Except that you would expect
the Spurs to beat a bad team by more than their average margin,
and you would expect the Kings to lose to a top team by more than their average margin.
Biscuit - January 21, 2012
Let's see, was the Kings basket in front of the Kings bench
in the first and third quarters? Does their offense rely on Smart yelling at them?
Biscuit - January 21, 2012
Switch ends at the half
Kings bench on offensive side in first half, defensive in second.
Tom Ziller - January 21, 2012
Ah
Biscuit - January 21, 2012
Yeah, the worst part is you can't even delete that comment
and it’s still early in the thread. So pretty much everyone’s going to read that and think to themselves “What the heck is this guy smoking?” It’s cool though… I’ve been there. As long as there isn’t someone to obnoxiously point out your mistake and highlight it with long-winded tangential sentences, you should be able to pass through the radar unscathed.
iashwash - January 21, 2012
Very thoughtful of you not to be the one to do that.
Slam_Dunk - January 21, 2012
I know, I'm such a nice guy.
iashwash - January 21, 2012
You are and superfluously so.
Slam_Dunk - January 21, 2012
Its not that big of a mistake
In football they swith sides after every quarter, and the Niners have all of NorCal in a frenzy about football right now.
Hopefully Keith Smart is the Kings’ Harbaugh
Scirocco - January 21, 2012 via mobile
They switch at the half?
Has anyone ever told our guys about that?
section214 - January 21, 2012
Explains a few things...
Balky Needs - January 21, 2012
Ahh, give them a little credit...
as bad as our team was, they never shot the ball into the wrong hoop. Well, other than the occasional accidental tip-in, that is. But every team does that.
Wonderchild - January 21, 2012
Thanks, iaswash
Yeah, I’m glad there were no long-winded tangential sentence-makers getting involved… lol.
I guess I’ve never paid much attention to which side of the court they were on. Some combination of apathy and dyslexia, I suppose.
In my defense, though, I actually was smoking some good shit while watching the game.
Biscuit - January 21, 2012
smart emphasizes family
I saw a lot of these last nite. Cousins got hit in the head and salmons came to cousins and ask if he was okay. I hope this continues and hope to see team basketball
jayzfelon - January 21, 2012 via mobile
they are a work in progress
but games like last night give an awesome glimpse of what they can be. Let’s get another in Memphis 2nite and boys are becoming men!
mtmoore55 - January 21, 2012
I had to listen the the 1st quarter on the radio
What was the deal with the Bobby Jackson tech? Was he yelling at the Ref? On the radio it sounded like Smart was yelling at B-Jax.
Crocoduck - January 21, 2012 via mobile
Apparently all he said was
“WAKE UP!” to the refs. seems like a petty T, but who knows if that’s all he actually said
HeuristicLineup - January 21, 2012
Ok thanks
Crocoduck - January 21, 2012
Yeah,
NBA refs take virtually no input from assistant coaches – they will t them a lot faster than they will head coaches or players.
section214 - January 21, 2012
As that sort of like in the military...
When someone is disciplined for not going up the chain of command?
Slam_Dunk - January 21, 2012
They are showing
…a prolonged defensive intensity that was not there before. Smart seems to have woken this in them.
AoxomoxoA - January 21, 2012
Great observation
We’ve all been noticing the offensive improvements, because the offense under PW was an absolute disaster. However, Smart’s reputation was for being a great defensive coach. In GS he was originally known as Nellie’s “defensive coordinator.” I think the improved transition D has been easy to notice, but the half court defense has gotten much better too. That’s a testament to Smart’s coaching.
SPTSJUNKIE - January 21, 2012
you know what team Salmons would be good on
After watching last nights game the Spurs. They need someone else to be able to break down the defense here and there. Too bad they don’t have anything to fit the Kings worth 8 mil. Kawhi Leanord was really unimpressive, I know he’s a rookie and I really liked him but now seeing him in NBA action he looks kinda slow/unathletic. He has HUGE hands and hustles but that is all,, for now at least.
Chent - January 21, 2012 via mobile
No chance the spurs do that trade anyway.
Where do all these people get the idea that he is good?
Blue Dog - January 21, 2012 via mobile
you must not have seen
Leonord ina any other games. Look at his number over the last wto weeks. He’s been playing very good and the spurs would never trade him. He’s been playing the bruce bowen role…perimeter defense and hitting corner 3s.
Bambooozled - January 21, 2012 via mobile
Did I say anything about trading Salmons for Kawhi..
I just said he didn’t look too good. I said too bad they don’t have anything worth 8 mil that would be a good fit on the Kings.. I don’t think he’s bad, he’s just a horrible fit on the Kings. Hes a 2 guard who can play SOME 3.
Chent - January 21, 2012 via mobile
ok
You said he looks slow and unathletic. How many Spurs games have you watched this season where he played in?
Bambooozled - January 21, 2012 via mobile
you also didnt say a word about him being a horrible fit on the kings in your first post
Just sayin.
Bambooozled - January 21, 2012 via mobile
only 2
But my point was I didn’t mention anything about trading Salmons for Kawhi, I know that deal would never happen. You don’t trade a rookie with potential and good tools to get better for an aging vet with a longer contract. He didn’t impress me both games, the first 1 I watched was when Manu was still playing. That doesn’t mean he is going to suck, he just seems a little unathletic. I’m probably wrong given the small sample size I’ve seen, I was hoping someone came on here to prove me wrong with a better feel for him. So Thank you, cuz I did like him in the draft
Chent - January 21, 2012 via mobile
...
Yeah he scored in double digits in 6 straight games, knocked down a corner 3 here and there and had decent rebound and steal numbers.
Bambooozled - January 21, 2012 via mobile
sounds good
You think they’d take Salmons for him? Lol. How’s his athleticism, because it seems like he has the tools to be very good if he was athletic, regardless though I love his hustle.
Chent - January 21, 2012 via mobile
Ya. They for sure would make that move.
Why dosn’t Petrie just pull the trigger.
Blue Dog - January 21, 2012
I loved the game last nite
And was really pleased with how we played defense and rebounded, but 125 of the Spur’s minutes were played by Gary Neal (91 games), Tiago Splitter (76 games), Kawhi Leonard (rookie), Daniel Green (44games), Cory Joseph (rookie), and Dejuan Blair (third year). A win is a win, but that is a pretty young team as well.
MichaelMack - January 21, 2012
True.
That was a young team we played. Not to mention they didn’t have Ginobli at all, and Duncan is nothing close to what he used to be.
However, at the end of the day, we STILL did beat a team that was 9-0 at home. Its been a tough first 15 games for us kings fans, so I think we can give us a lot of credit for this win, we deserve it haha. But I still do agree, Spurs are in no way the same team as we remember them.
Tyro18 - January 21, 2012
I think Pops underestimated us
They have another game today, and they had two good runs in the 3rd so he rested Duncan. I think Duncan sat at the end of the 3rd and all of the 4th until the last play.
What was unusual about that game was that after Parker hit that 3 and the other jumper they were up by 6 late in the 4th. Then they went 0-5 on their last possessions. The Spurs usually don’t go 0-5 anytime during a game. So, as young as there lineup might have been, Pops didn’t expect us to make 4 of our last 5 and them to miss 5 of their last 5.
Also this was their 2nd worst FG% of the season. They were averaging 52% from the field but only shot 37% against us. I know we’ve upped our defensive pressure, but we’re not that good.
HighTops - January 21, 2012
But we were that good.
Which demonstrates we can be that good again. Consistency will come…
CowbellKings - January 21, 2012
But we were that good.sounds like what they said when the warriors beat the heat
but now they are 5-10
Skeptic con Urquell - January 21, 2012
Yes, I put that loss on Pops' shoulders
I am all for resting Duncan in games, but not to the point where it costs the team wins. He should have put Duncan in for the last 4 minutes of the game, but he didnt.
Wonderchild - January 21, 2012
Thats right
But those players have also been kicking other teams’ asses
“tyreke hater” here who is thrilled about the way he (and big cuz) have been stepping up. One pet peeve though… This new “he should have 7 assists by now” angle by jerry and peaches is getting old. We aren’t the only team that misses shots.
Salmons. Hes been roasted and he deserves it. but you have to admire the guys stones to take not one but two big shots in that situation, given how bad hes sucked.
anyone see the end of the dubs game? Oucccchhhh.
lchristmas - January 21, 2012 via mobile
tell me about it..
I watched the game last night with my friend last night and I am so sick how they keep repeating that. Me and my friend both agree they are too biased. EVERY point guard in the NBA could have 2-5 more assists a game “if theyre teammates just hit the shots”. Yes we know Grant and Jerry.. Be happy that he is doing what hes doing and is finding the open man.. which I know they are.
I personally don’t care about stats, for him to be doing what he’s doing im happy with.
Tyro18 - January 21, 2012
Yes, other teams miss shots
But not as many as we do. We are the worst shooting team in the league, Tyreke SHOULD have had 7 assists by then as people were missing wide open shots
HeuristicLineup - January 21, 2012
Agreed regarding the Grant/Jerry commentary
Evans probably takes a slightly larger hit due to the fact that the Kings have been such an awful shooting team this year, but it probably translates into no more than 1 more assist per game than if he were doing the same thing for a better shooting team.
They did a lot of this during his rookie year, too. He’d throw a pass to someone that would knock down a three, and they would barely acknowledge the guy that made the shot. Not so much last year.
section214 - January 21, 2012
this
wallywagon11 - January 21, 2012
Half true. On a normal shooting night, yes. One some of the nights where the team has shot 30%, no.
I think the offense has been the problem more than the talent, but our team’s below average shooting has taken away assists. It’s the one primary box score stat where a player relies on his teammate.
SPTSJUNKIE - January 21, 2012
still annoying
who knows, maybe Nets announcers say that every Nets game with Deron but either way it’s annoying
wallywagon11 - January 21, 2012
Kings won by a bucket 88-86
love it!!
Skeptic con Urquell - January 21, 2012
Guys who should be the leaders stepped up
Reke, Cuz, and even Salmons…. IT struggled as rookies will….Jimmer nothing special but appears to be more comfortable. Thorton frustrates me. I know he has s scorers mentality but still forces waaaay too many shots.
Pdidd - January 21, 2012
not sure where thorton's new love came from
don’t remember it last year, but he’s been forcing up runners all year.
Brannigan's Law - January 21, 2012
Last year he also had to be that guy
Since Tyreke was hurt for a majority of the season
HeuristicLineup - January 21, 2012
General observations (Thornton/Reke) that have been covered, but wanted to get out.
Good W. Haven’t seen every Reke game, but that was the best overall game I’ve seen him play, when you take into consideration his D and ability to see the floor and flow of the game. Very impressive.
And I don’t like Thornton for this team unless he’s the 6th man. I think that signing was a bit desperate by Petrie. Thornton is a ball hog, ball dominating, chucker. True, the Kings may need him for scoring for now, but I don’t see him in the long term starting roll. Wish Kings could deal him along with Ferdette/Salmons for a shooter who doesn’t ballhog.
amonk81 - January 21, 2012
I share your feelings about Marcus, but he really only needs some minor tweeks
In the past there has been a lot of discussion about who was the best fit along side Tyreke. Now, I think the bigger question is who is the better fit along side Marcus. For me that’s Thomas, because he’s the ball handler that takes that role out of Marcus’ hands. He also doesn’t need to shot the ball to be effective on the court.
I personally don’t want to lose Marcus just for another shooter when we have Ferdette waiting in the wings, unless we could get a top caliber starting PG. The biggest problem is who do we move to replace Marcus in the starting lineup who isn’t going to take the ball out of Tyreke’s hands.
I still think that based on our current roster, that man is Salmons especially after the way he preformed late in the Spurs game. He just needs to get his 3pt shot back. He doesn’t take a lot of possessions, plays solid defense, has good size, attacks the rim, and can handle the ball and pass. We just need to go out and get a starting 3.
HighTops - January 21, 2012
Shooter who doesn’t ballhog…Isnt this an oxymoron?
Wonderchild - January 21, 2012
No.
Just sayin. I think he’s referring to Jon Barry.
caseycheesecake - January 21, 2012
I think this will be a very close game. Grizzlies MIGHT win, but I hope we can sneak a sly win.
CousinsEvansDUO - January 21, 2012
Again. I'm just hoping they are competitive and shown signs of improvements
HeuristicLineup - January 21, 2012
I think they will be; at least better than the last game.
but winning on the road is tough for any team. It took the Spurs shooting 37% for us to pull the last one out by 2pts.
HighTops - January 21, 2012
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